Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Mixed Bag

Well, I'm certainly not a general equity bull and hence not surprised of the recent (ongoing?) global equity market drop. I did also forecast a certain amount of weakness for metals, commodities and precious metals shares. So anyone following my posting got several warnings.

However when I examine the gold, silver, precious metals stocks and various ratio charts the picture is mixed.

Some bearish signs: major miners (which are heavily weighted into gold mining indices) Barrick Gold (ABX), Newmont Mining (NEM), Goldcorp (GG) are making new lows for 2007 and the charts look like they can slide lower. XGD the Canadian gold miners ETF, $XAU – both closed at a new low for 2007

Some bullish signs: The gold & silver charts do not look that bad (yet), the HUI continue to outperform the heavy hedged XAU. Some juniors are outperforming as Stacy M. Himes Posted.

I favor holding good long term gold, silver and precious metals shares positions, be in a wait and see position, do not capitulate! , do not seat and wait like a duck for your stops to be taken, don't be shy to take partial profits, If you can't stand the volatility then decrease your positions.

Good Luck

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Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi Tony,

I've been look at the Gold Vs Silver ratio (learn from Bob Hoye), and the XAU/Gold ratio for the trigger point to buy at the 0.18-0.19 region.

That XAU/Gold sweet risk/reward point is almost there.

For gold investors, would a Gold/HUI Ratio (Buy at 2.2 and Sell at 1.6)be a better entry/exit signal? Since HUI is unhedged and does not include silver.

Tuesday, March 13, 2007 10:50:00 PM  
Blogger troy said...

I tend to use the ratios as a secondary signal, more of a confirmation then a strict buy /sell signal. HUI/Gold and XAU/Gold look about the same to me.

Gold vs. Gold Stocks, GOLD/XAU Ratio

Tuesday, March 13, 2007 11:34:00 PM  
Anonymous MootDispute said...

The case, and background, for GOLD having an objective support level at its Simple Moving Average SMA(65weeks) is posted to my comment on Stacy Himes BlogSpot where its link is accessible by a click on my name (here and there). Does this expectation align with your Global Gold Perspective trends and channels?

Wednesday, March 14, 2007 9:22:00 AM  

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